Could false-positive PCR test results be fueling a Fake Pandemic?

Every diagnostic test approved by the FDA must submit a specificity rating, and the PCR test for detecting COVID-19 is no different. But what does specificity mean, why is it important, and how is this rating not disclosed publicly?

Let's start with an understanding of diagnostic specificity. An article by VeryWellHealth.com explains it in plain language: "Specificity refers to the ability of a test to rule out the presence of a disease in someone who does not have it. In other words, in a test with high specificity, a negative is negative. A test with low specificity can be thought of as being too eager to find a positive result, even when it is not present, and may give a high number of false positives. This could result in a test saying that a healthy person has a disease, even when it is not actually present."

For example, if 1,000 non-infectious healthy people are given a COVID test with a specificity rating of 95%, it would produce 50 false-positive results on average. Here's a great interactive calculator that you can use to see how various ratings effect test results in your community: BMJ Covid-19 Test Calculator

And our friends at the CDC have also prepared two graphical examples to explain false-positives: CDC Calculator Graphic

The CDC states: "Despite the high specificity of antigen tests, false positive results will occur, especially when used in communities where the prevalence of infection is low – a circumstance that is true for all in vitro diagnostic tests. CDC considers low prevalence to be when NAAT positivity over the last 14 days is less than 5% or when there are fewer than 20 new cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 persons within the last 14 days. In general, the lower the prevalence of infection in the community, the higher the rate of false positive test results." (source)

"In general, the lower the prevalence of infection in the community, the higher the rate of false positive test results."

I live in Mendocino County, California where (according to what the CDC describes above) is experiencing a "low prevalence" of the virus. My state's COVID tracker website tells me that the positivity rating for my county is currently at 1.2%, and the state average is 1.7% positivity, which is well below the 5% threshold detailed above.

So how many false-positive test results are there in Mendocino County? To find out that information, we would need the specificity rating of the PCR test being used in my county. I have spent the past 3 days on the phone with the county health officials, county supervisors, the California department of health, and with the testing company hired by the state (Optum Serve). Not a single person will disclose the specificity rating for the test we are using. The response I received from Dr. Andy Coren (Mendocino County Health Officer) was " I do not have this information".

So without that information, we are forced to make an educated guess. I have researched PCR tests that have been given an Emergency Use Authorization by the FDA, and their specificity rating varies from about 95% to 99% (source). To be "fair" I will assume a specificity rating of 98%. So here's what we have: a virus prevalence of 1.2%, a specificity rating of 98%, and an average daily test count of 150 tests. Doing the math gives a likelihood of 3 false-positives on average per day in Mendocino County. Now that might not sound like a lot, but if you look up my county's average daily cases, it has been between 2-4 new cases per day for the past month. So could it be that these "new cases" are actually just false-positives produced by an imperfect test? Is this the "fake pandemic" that we've been hearing about?

If you're looking to help, there are some people you can contact in Mendocino County that should know the specificity rating of the test we use. They won't tell us, but maybe they'll give an answer if more people reach out. You can contact  Dr. Andy Coren (Mendocino County Health Officer) at (707) 472-2759 or corena@mendocinocounty.org and Ted Williams (Mendocino County 5th District Supervisor) at (707) 937-3500 or williamst@mendocinocounty.org

We can also do the math on a national level. The positivity rate in the US is currently at 5.2% and we are averaging about 1.5 million tests per day. Assuming an average specificity rating of 98%, there is a likelihood of 28,440 false-positive tests per day. The US is averaging about 70,000 new positive tests per day, so it is possible that 40.6% of our new cases are actually false positives. And that is assuming a specificity rating of 98%, but we know that there are Covid tests with a rating of under 95% which would produce more than double the amount of false-positives than a test with a 98% rating.


More notes on specificity from the CDC: "Sensitivity and specificity of any test for influenza viruses in respiratory specimens might vary by the type of testing method and specific test used, the time from illness onset to specimen collection, the quality of the specimen collected, the respiratory source of the specimen, handling and processing of the specimen, and the time from specimen collection to testing. The post-test probability or predictive values (positive and negative predictive values) of an influenza virus test depend upon the prevalence of circulating seasonal influenza viruses in the patient population, and the specific test characteristics (sensitivity and specificity) compared to a “gold standard” comparison test (molecular assay or viral culture). As with any diagnostic test, results should be evaluated in the context of other clinical and epidemiologic information available to health care providers. Serological testing does not provide timely results to inform clinical management decisions."

When addressing interpretation of test results, the CDC recommends: "In contrast, false-positive [RIDT] results are less likely, but can occur and are more common during periods of low influenza activity. Therefore, when interpreting results of a rapid influenza diagnostic test, clinicians should consider the accuracy of the test in the context of the level of influenza activity in their community"

9 comments

  • Hi Chris, just letting you know you are not alone in this fight against forced kill shots and lab made flu. I am in Maine and there are a few us non zombies who never fell for this Covid lie. Keep up the fight! We have more lies coming our way with the bumbling fool at our Country’s helm. We need to stand strong and not fall no matter what. Bless you and yours
    Dorothy.

    Dorothy Gardiner
  • I wish I could order from you online. I’m in the midwest and I think your sign and other stuff is hilarious, if it makes snowflakes whine. I wish I was near to come in to order. I did have the vaccine but tried to never wear masks unless asked to, and I like giving to charity, unlike some of your intolerant, hatefilled snowflakes that have visited. So I’d come in, no mask, $5 ready, and say, I got the vax, and drop ya the extra $5. LOL. Keep up the great work.

    BTW, having something to sell online might be a good thing for you. Here in Lexington, KY, a coffee house called Brewed has bucked the mask wearing mandate, at a loss of their liquor license and temporarily their food license, and they sell stuff online now, as demand has picked up so well for them, they are going to open 2 more locations in KY. Their gofu**me campaign to impeach the KY governor was removed by gofu**me.

    Ryan R.
  • We just saw a post by a nurse showing us that most of the swabs that are used in the tests are sterilized with EO=Ethelene Oxide …known to cause cancer , tumors and infertility problems as stated by OSHA…if inhaled. That’s what they are sticking in your nose farback in your sinuses to do the test! Look up Cassandra Dunn for details.
    We commend Fiddleheads Cafe for charging $5 for wearing a mask and or bragging about your vaccine…( funny but not!) I pity the people including my own family members who have taken the Jab and have furthered this death sentence upn themselves…see Dr Judy Mikovits, Dr. Sherry Tenpenny and the World doctors alliance.com

    Steve Clark
  • The protocols, developed over decades, to improve the efficacy and accuracy of diagnostic methods has been thrown out the window. The panic that was created by the “stacking corpses like cord wood” outside Italian hospitals (a term coined by the Chicago Times in 1863 to pressure Lincoln into settling with secessionists and to allow the largely democratic south to keep slavery intact) was not ill-informed, but deliberate. The gene splicing technology now being used to create the Bill Gates approved MRNA vaccines was banned in EVERY country in the world til the covid panic let loose the hounds of hell. Make no mistake: This ‘vaccine’ is as anti human a thing as you can imagine. Big Tech is robbing us of avenues of research and verification, bit by bit, every day. Just yesterday YouTube removed the researcher James Corbett from the platform. James researched and reported on a CDC/WHO/EU/CFR plan to lock the globe down with a bogus “killer virus” that would finally allow for a “great reset.” He made the documentary, gleaned from documents, inter department memoranda of those organizations, in 2008. I’m not at all worried about this virus, but the deliberate refusal of the general population to perform even a cursory glance in a non-network-news research scares the hell out of me.

    Doug Taylor

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